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INDIA’S WORLD : January 27, 2020


MYANMAR-CHINA PACT AND INDIA

Introduction

-The state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Myanmar on January 17 and 18, the first of its kind in 19 years, was a transformative event in regional politics from the perspective of China – Myanmar bilateral relations as well as the region as whole.

- The joint statement, issued on January 18, claims that “a new chapter” has been opened “in the ever dash lasting friendship” between the two countries, stemming from the broad understanding to promote “comprehensive strategic cooperation”. It refers to building the “Myanmar-China” community with a shared future. Exchange of “experience in governance” will be deepend and strategic communication will be enhanced.

- This government plans to make good use of the 2 + 2 high level consultations, comprising the two foreign ministers and defence ministers. In the domain of infrastructure, a substance that is been given to turn into reality the proposed China dash Myanmar economic corridor a vital component of the belt and Road initiative.


Insights

- The Myanmar people and government including Myanmar Army had

very interesting approach to China, at one level there is enormous dependency and at another there is very substantial suspicion.

- In 1988, China was the only country stood by Myanmar.

- Western world in particular has no real understanding of the Myanmar

situation.

- China had appointed A special envoy only for Myanmar after the

reverses that it support when the Americans and Japanese try to come in and failed.

- 33 memorandums being undersigned most of them for projects that

were already there.

- The visit comes at a time when Chinese Policy under Xi Jinping have suffered major setback with protests in Hong Kong and vote for pre Independence democratic progressive party in Taiwan. So, for Xi Jinping there is a plus point as far as his foreign policy is concerned.

- In 2001, India was looking at growing relationship between China and

Myanmar economically and the Chinese drive for as it was called Irrawaddy corridor. - Chinese had penetrated virtually every level of the bureaucracy and

therefore there were obstruction all along the way in engaging of other countries in Myanmar.

- Dominant population in Myanmar are Buddhists and they don’t want to

get along with Rohingyas. Chinese grip take hold, Buddhists may have problem on this too.

- The core in Myanmar are the Burman ethnicity and lots of ethnic groups. The Burman’s always have this anxiety towards China, that it uses others smaller nations against Burmans. The Myanmar army is Burman Army, it’s core was that starting from the 1940s and persisted.


ETHNIC ANGLE:-

There is a curious xenophobia because the way British treated Myanmar or Burma it was then called up allowing a settlement a lot of people from the subcontinent, the xenophobia was against those people who had settled from the subcontinent not only Rohingyas as but the others and there was enormous amount of migration or forced migration out of Myanmar in 1960 as which led to enormous trouble between India and Myanmar.

- There are Indians in Myanmar of Indian Origin who are still

stateless.

- The security calculus has changed now, the best way to get

security into India’s North East is to really get act East policy going.

- If friendship between China and Myanmar develops into a bear

hug, some insurgent groups within India have actually gone to China for training and then move back could be facilitated.


Things need to be addressed security wise are:-

1. We have to build our economy component in a much stronger way.

2. We could be a part of Defence supplier group as Myanmar is concerned. As they

get 80 to 90% of their weaponry from China.

- Chinese having mediating between the Myanmar army and the government

as well as with ethnic groups.


BCIM:- Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar economic corridor.

Regarding this India must be very careful because the economies of the north east are very fragile, the population is fragile and our connectivity between the mainland and these people is very weak.

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